Egypt Vs Japan

Egypt and Japan are poles apart - geographically, historically, culturally and politically. But lately, there has been a common point of reference: Both held elections that, different as their internal dynamics were, point toward changes that could affect both countries internally and, by extension, the regions they live in.

For a half-century, Egypt has been a military dictatorship in civilian garb. The ruling National Democratic Party is a tool of Hosni Mubarak's personal power, backed by a repressive security service. But this year, instead of the usual referendum to endorse his permanent rule, Mubarak, under heavy pressure from the US and internal movements for Change, let others challenge his bid for a fifth six-year term (5 * 6 = 30 years). The result was hardly democracy in action: The regime decided who could compete, how the campaign would be run and, most crucial, how the votes would be counted. Mubarak got 88.5 percent of the vote in an election whose low turnout - 23 percent officaill results - reflected Egyptians' understanding of what was afoot.


Still, there was sharp criticism by rival candidates of Mubarak's failure to raise living standards. One candidate - Ayman Nour - has become a popular national figure, and the neo liberals of the NDP (Gamal and Friends Inc.) felt compelled to resort to U.S.-style campaigning, complete with "I feel your pain" rhetoric. Egyptians got a glimpse of what democratic politics is about, and the regime may find it difficult to return to business as usual, as if nothing new had happened.

In Japan - paradoxically both a democracy and a virtual one-party state for a half-century - the ruling Liberal Democratic Party won as usual, but with a difference. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi cast off Japan's trademark consensus politics and campaigned against the reactionary barons of his own party, who had blocked his effort to privatize the state postal service, the world's largest financial institution that controls $3 trillion in assets used to dispense patronage to a range of interest groups. Voters embraced a reformist agenda that may go further than they realize in attacking a change-resistant system.

Whether Koizumi will be able to implement his plans, even with the strong majority the LDP won in the lower house, is uncertain. He has only a year left before party rules force him to step down, and retrograde forces are sure to resist. But he sees what many Japanese refuse to - that the country faces a demographic crisis, with an aging population and a low birth rate that could severely weaken the economy and make it even more difficult for Japan to manage its growing rivalry with China.

Another difference between the elections in Egypt and Japan is that Mubarak, despite his power, played it safe by making only cosmetic changes. Koizumi, by contrast, took what many saw as a reckless gamble by calling an early vote, attacking a segment of his own party and sticking to a single, controversial message - and won. Neither tactic guarantees future success. But Koizumi's is a lesson in hardball democracy that Egyptians would do well to study for the uncertain times ahead.